So all cards up in the air! A general election will be on the books, but one thing is for sure … whoever gets the job to deal with Brexit has a hard job on their hands (I’m just glad its not me!) As it currently stands, by not assuring the rights of EU citizens in the UK, Theresa May has squandered an opportunity to give peace of mind to our EU co-workers working and living in Guildford (and the rest of the UK). No.10 Downing Street’s point of view is that in promising the rights of EU citizens in the UK, it will postpone the same guarantee to the 1.5 million UK citizens living in the other nations of the EU.
Putting aside the politics for one second, the simple fact is now Article 50 has been triggered, we have two years to make a deal with the EU; otherwise it will be a ‘hard Brexit’. Now you might not think a hard Brexit will affect you in your home in Guildford … but nothing could be further from the truth.
Of the 130,920 people who are resident in the Guildford Borough Council area, 112,267 were born in the UK, 4,363 were born in EU countries from West Europe and 1,727 were born in EU countries from the former Soviet States in East Europe (the rest coming from other countries around the world).
The rights of these EU citizens living in the Guildford area are not guaranteed and will now be part of the negotiation with Europe. It is true a lot of our EU next door neighbours in Guildford will have acquired rights relating to the right to live, to work, to own a business, to possess a property, the right to access health and education services and the right to remain in a UK after retirement… yet those acquired rights are up for negotiation in the next two years.
So, what would a hard Brexit do to the Guildford property market?
Well a hard Brexit could mean the nuclear option when it came to the Guildford housing market. It could mean that every EU citizen would have to leave the UK.
In the Guildford Borough area, 2,708 of the 4,363 Western European EU citizens own their own home and (so they would all need to be sold) and 1,060 of the 1,727 Eastern European EU citizens rent a property, so again all those rental properties would all come on the market at the same time.
Hard Brexit and mass EU Migration would mean c.1800 properties being dumped onto the housing market in a short period of time, meaning there would be a massive drop in Guildford property values and rents, causing negative equity for thousands of Guildford homeowners and many buy-to-let landlords would be out of pocket.
While there is no certainty as to what the future will hold, both UK expats in the EU and EU citizens in the UK rights will no longer be guaranteed and will be subject to bilateral renegotiation.
All I ask is that the politicians are sensible with each other in the negotiations. A lot of the success of the Guildford (and UK) property market has been built on high levels of homeownership and more recently in the last 10/15 years, a growth of the rental sector with lots of demand from Eastern Europeans coming to Guildford (and the surrounding area) to get work and provide for their families. Many Guildford people have invested their life savings into buying a buy to let property.
Much will depend on what is politically realistic. Unilateral knee-jerk reactions and measures caused by a hard Brexit would not only likely cause major disruption or suffering to the 3 million EU citizens living in the UK, but also everyone who owns property in the UK … politics aside – a hard Brexit is in no one’s interests.